By Christopher Kebschull
Stained
On June 26, the Russian RESURS-P1 satellite was observed to fragment after it was out of service, forcing the crew of the International Space Station (ISS) to take shelter for a short period. Although the cause of this fragmentation is unknown, the United States Space Command reported that just two days after the event, more than 100 pieces of debris were generated, of which only 19 were tracked.
July 10thHeWe witnessed the failed final deorbiting process of the Ariane 6 upper stage.
On August 13thHeWe witnessed the body fragmentation event of the Chinese CZ-6A rocket, resulting in approximately 700 new debris objects, which is the third such event of the upper stages of the Chinese Long-March CZ-6A rocket this year.
On September 6thHeA fragmentation occurred in the Atlas 5 upper stage, again leaving hundreds of fragments in an eccentric orbit above LEO.
Understanding these events
Space debris larger than 1 cm in size can fragment any object it collides with. The fragmentation events mentioned above are just three of a total of 643 documented eventsThese include 11 tests classified as anti-satellite (ASAT) and 207 generic fragmentations involving Briz-M and Tsyklon upper stages, Cosmos objects and Meteor-class satellites.
With the rapid pace of technological advancement, there is hope that the proliferation of space debris can be curbed through proactive measures.
In addition, there have been 17 special releases involving the ejection of reactor cores from RORSAT defense satellites, producing “exotic” space debris known as sodium-potassium droplets.
Approximately 60% of the disintegration debris is attributed to spacecraft, while 35% is due to rocket debris left in orbit. The remaining 5% consists of mission-related debris.
The initial expectation for the RESURS-P1 event was that most of these fragments would disintegrate and burn up within a few months, and the latest Space Track reports show that all 19 tracked fragments have already disintegrated.
At the beginning of August, we witnessed another fragmentation episode. The breakup of the body of the Chinese CZ-6A rocket resulted in the addition of about 700 new debris, according to LeoLabs, objects at an altitude of 800 km. Space debris at that altitude remains in orbit for centuries.
The fragmentation of the Atlas 5 upper stage is the 5thHe of its kind. The last fragmentation occurred in April 2019, leaving fragments at higher altitudes in an eccentric orbit above low Earth orbit (LEO) and reaching up to geostationary orbit (GEO).
As for the deorbiting of the stranded Ariane 6 upper stage, although the rocket successfully launched and deployed several payloads, a problem arose during the final phase of the mission. This caused the upper stage to not deorbit as planned and to remain in orbit, together with two reentry capsules that were to be released in order to test reentry technologies.
In the worst-case scenario, re-entry is expected to occur no earlier than 2051, i.e. within 27 years. In the best-case scenario, the upper stage will remain in orbit for 12 years.
The consequences of these events, which occurred in a span of just four months, are a substantial increase in the risk of collisions with space debris, creating even more fragmentation and operational overload for operators.
The growing threat of space debris
Space debris has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges in modern space operations. With more than 30,000 trackable objects currently in orbit and millions of smaller pieces that cannot be tracked, the risk of collision has grown exponentially. Notable incidents, such as the 2009 collision between Iridium-33 and Kosmos-2251, generated thousands of fragments that continue to pose risks to operational satellites and space missions.
This destructive potential is the result of high impact velocities, which can reach 15 km/s in the case of space debris. This growing cloud of debris has raised concerns about the possibility of a cascading collision scenario known as the Kessler syndrome.
In this scenario, the density of debris in low Earth orbit becomes so high that collisions between objects trigger a chain reaction, producing more debris and leading to more collisions. The easiest way to describe it would be as a raging problem of space debris begetting more space debris. If left unchecked, this could leave parts of low Earth orbit unusable for future missions, severely impacting commercial and government space activities.
Impact on ISS and spacecraft operations
In the case of the International Space Station and other active satellites, debris just a few centimeters in size can cause catastrophic damage, endangering crew members and disrupting space operations. The initial expectation was that most of these fragments would disintegrate and burn up within months, and the latest Space Track reports show that all 19 of the tracked fragments have already disintegrated.
In the case of RESURS-P1, when fragmentation was detected, the ISS crew followed standard protocol and took shelter in their spacecraft, ready to evacuate if necessary. This highlights the constant vigilance required in an increasingly congested low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment.
International standards and waste mitigation measures
Given the severity of the problem, several international organizations have established guidelines for mitigating space debris. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) provides recommendations for minimizing debris during satellite operations and ensuring that out-of-orbit satellites are deorbited within a reasonable time frame.
In addition, the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) works to promote the sustainable use of outer space through international cooperation.
The easiest way to describe it would be as a terrible problem of space debris creating more space debris.
However, implementing these guidelines remains a challenge, especially as more private entities enter the space industry and geopolitical tensions influence space activities. Recent initiatives, such as the European Space Agency (ESA) ClearSpace-1 mission, aim to actively remove debris from orbit using robotic arms, demonstrating that solutions are possible if the necessary resources are allocated.
The future of space traffic management
Looking ahead, increasing congestion in low-Earth orbit calls for the development of sophisticated space traffic management systems. Proposals include the creation of a centralized “space traffic control” system that can coordinate maneuvers to avoid collisions. Such a system would require international cooperation and robust data-sharing agreements between governments and private entities.
With the rapid pace of technological advancement, there is hope that the proliferation of space debris can be curbed through proactive measures. However, as more satellites are launched and space becomes increasingly commercialized, the need for effective debris management strategies will only increase.
Final thoughts: The importance of collective responsibility
The three fragmentation episodes and the failed deorbit of the Ariane 6 upper stage are another reminder of the increasing complexity of managing space activities. As the space economy expands, the risks associated with space debris can neither be ignored nor addressed in retrospect.
To end on a positive note, we only have to look at the numbers to see that progress is being made and systems are more reliable now than ever before.
The collective responsibility of all nations, from those with operational capabilities to those in development, private companies and international organizations, is essential to maintaining a sustainable orbital environment. Continuous surveillance, robust mitigation strategies, and innovative technologies that improve data quality and sharing and system interoperability will be crucial to ensuring the safety and sustainability of future space operations.
Christopher Kebschull is the CTO and co-founder of OKAPI:Orbits. He holds a Master’s degree from the Technical University of Braunschweig with a specialization in aerospace engineering and a strong background in computer science. At the Institute of Space Systems, he became an established expert on space debris, making notable contributions to ESA and DLR contracts, educating students and supervising their theses. In 2018, he co-founded OKAPI:Orbits and now leads pioneering efforts in space traffic management and spearheads innovation in the industry.
