In 2016, Telesat bet that its future growth would rest on the idea of building a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit that would be known as Lightspeed.
According to the latest data Novel space Report on Satellite and video connectivity marketThe non-geostationary satellite orbit (NGSO) market, which includes Telesat’s Lightspeed, will see revenues surpass the geostationary orbit market by 2028. The bet Telesat made appears to be paying off, although it has taken much longer than expected.
Novaspace stated that “GEO capacity still accounts for around 85% of capacity revenues in 2023, although NGSO capacity revenues are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%, surpassing GEO revenues by 2028 and generating around $18 billion by 2033.”
According to Novaspace, “The past three years have seen a dramatic eight-fold increase in global satellite capacity supply, reaching around 27 Tbps in 2023, with over 80% of Starlink’s capacity. This dominance can be partly attributed to delays in the initial target dates of most other software-defined satellite and constellation projects. However, new low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations such as Telesat Lightspeed and Amazon Kuiper, along with second-generation constellations for Starlink and Eutelsat OneWeb, and very high-throughput satellites (VHTS) such as Viasat-3, are expected to drive growth to 260 Tbps by 2029.”
Satellite operators have been taking a “wait and see” attitude as NGSO systems ramp up and geostationary earth orbit (GEO) orders steadily decline.
Dimitri Buchs, Novaspace manager and lead author, said: “Faced with a changing landscape marked by declining demand for video streaming, fluctuating mobility market patterns and an influx of NGSO constellation capacity, satellite communications operators have been exploring different strategies to survive.”
“To expand market reach, diversify service offerings and improve business resilience, capacity providers have been increasingly forming ‘multi-orbit’ partnerships. Market segments with lower price sensitivity, such as aeronautical in-flight connectivity (IFC) and military communications, are expected to drive the majority of demand for multi-orbit connectivity solutions. Overall, multi-orbital services revenue is projected to reach nearly $5 billion by 2033.”
